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50-day moving average explained

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The 50-day moving average is the mean of the last 50 daily closing prices, recalculated each day as the newest close enters and the oldest drops out. It gives a guide to the medium-term trend, since a close above it is higher than the average close of roughly the last ten weeks of trading. Owl Mastery shows how far each close sits from its 50-day average, in percent.

How the 50-day moving average is calculated

Add up the last 50 daily closes and divide by 50. Each new trading day, the newest close enters the window and the oldest one drops out, so the average follows price, but more slowly. This is a simple moving average.

Every close in the window counts the same. A large move 49 days ago weighs as much as yesterday's close. When that old close leaves the window, the average can shift even on a day when price does not move.

Why 50 days

Fifty trading days are about ten weeks, roughly a fifth of a trading year. That makes the 50-day average a medium-term line. A shorter window, such as 20 days, follows price more closely and turns sooner. A longer one, such as 200 days, changes slowly and describes the longer trend. The 50-day and 200-day averages are compared with each other, which is where the crossover terms below come from.

How Owl Mastery measures it

Owl Mastery reports the distance from the average, not the average itself. Its vs 50D average signal is (close / mean of the last 50 closes - 1) × 100, computed from each stock's one-year daily bars.

  • Above means the reading is positive, so the close is over its average.
  • Below means the reading is negative, so the close is under its average.
  • At means the reading is exactly zero.

A percentage can be compared across stocks at any price, which the raw average cannot. The signal needs at least 50 closes and updates once a day, after each US market close. The methodology lists it with the other signals.

Simple against exponential moving average

Many charts also offer an exponential moving average (EMA) over 50 days. The two can show different values for the same stock on the same day.

Simple (SMA)Exponential (EMA)
WeightingEvery close in the window counts the sameRecent closes count more, and older ones fade
Reaction to a new moveSlowerFaster
An old close leaving the windowCan move the average on its ownNo sudden drop-off, because old closes fade gradually
Used by Owl MasteryYes, in vs 50D averageNo

How to read the 50-day moving average

  • Trend context. A close above the 50-day average means price is above its mean of the last 50 closes, which may point to a medium-term uptrend. A close below it may point to a downtrend.
  • Pullbacks. In an uptrend, check whether price holds when it falls back to the average. A close well below it may mean the trend is weakening.
  • Stretch. A large positive distance means price has run far above its recent average, and a large negative one that it has fallen far below. Compare it with RSI.
  • Crossovers. A golden cross is the 50-day average rising above the 200-day average, and a death cross is the reverse. Owl Mastery does not compute the 200-day average.

The SPX page shows the S&P 500's latest distance from its 50-day average with the other signals.

The 50-day moving average on crypto

The calculation is the same on Bitcoin or any other coin. Two things differ because crypto trades 24 hours a day, every day.

  • 50 bars cover less time. On a US stock, 50 daily bars are 50 trading days, about ten weeks. On crypto they are 50 calendar days, about seven weeks, weekends included. A crypto 50-day average reacts to a shorter stretch of the calendar.
  • The daily close is a chosen time. With no closing bell, each daily bar closes at a cut-off the exchange or chart picks, such as midnight UTC. Charts with different cut-offs average different closes.

Owl Mastery currently covers US stocks and indexes only, so it shows no crypto moving averages. The way to read a close above or below the average is the same on a crypto chart.

Limits of the 50-day moving average

  • It lags. The average is built from past closes, so it turns after price has turned.
  • Sideways markets. When price moves sideways, it crosses the average often, and each cross says little.
  • Drop-off moves. A simple average can change because an old close left the window, not because of anything that happened today.
  • Once a day. Owl Mastery's reading uses daily closes and updates after each US close, so it does not change during the session.
  • No forecast. Where the close sits against its average describes the past. It does not say where price goes next.

Frequently asked questions

Is the 50-day moving average simple or exponential?

It can be either, and a chart should say which one it draws. The simple version weights each of the 50 closes equally. The exponential version gives recent closes more weight. Owl Mastery uses the simple average of the last 50 closes.

What does it mean when a stock crosses above its 50-day moving average?

The close has moved from below the average of the last 50 closes to above it. That may be a sign the medium-term trend is turning up. In a sideways market, price can cross back and forth many times, so one cross proves little.

What is a golden cross?

A golden cross is when the 50-day moving average rises above the 200-day moving average. The opposite, the 50-day falling below the 200-day, is called a death cross. Both describe a trend that has already happened and do not forecast what comes next. Owl Mastery does not compute a 200-day average.

How long is a 50-day moving average on crypto?

It covers 50 daily bars. Crypto trades every day, so that is 50 calendar days, about seven weeks. On a US stock, 50 daily bars are 50 trading days, about ten weeks. Owl Mastery currently covers US stocks and indexes only.

Educational content, not investment advice.